AGP Executive Report

Korea Cosmetics Surge: South Korea overtook the U.S. in cosmetics exports in 2025, hitting a record $11.4B and a $10.1B trade surplus as the U.S. slipped to third—Vietnam is among the top destinations. Vietnam Policy Push: Vietnam approved a human-resources development plan for the atomic energy sector and is seeking legal reforms to enable fully digital secured-transaction registration, especially for land-linked assets. Digital Trade Infrastructure: Authorities are also moving to connect registration services with an electronic notarisation database, aiming for end-to-end online delivery. Regional Energy Pressure: Cambodia’s rice farmers are feeling the squeeze from higher fuel and fertilizer costs tied to wider Middle East shipping and supply disruptions. Ongoing Vietnam Finance Spotlight: Vietnam’s Truong My Lan case continues to spill into the luxury market, with confiscated Hermès Birkin bags auctioned in HCMC.

VinFast Legal Pressure: North Carolina has sued VinFast over alleged delays and default on its planned EV and battery factory in Chatham County, saying the company has left the 712-hectare site idle for over a year—while VinFast says construction will restart soon. EV Momentum: The global EV market keeps climbing, with the IEA pointing to 2025’s record sales and forecasts toward ~30% of new cars sold being electric by 2026, with Southeast Asia still a key growth engine. Vietnam–US Trade: Prime Minister Le Minh Hung says Vietnam and the US are moving toward a fair, balanced reciprocal trade agreement, stressing market principles, forced-labour bans, and IP protection. Energy Transition: Vietnam’s E10 rollout is ramping up, with BSR preparing to supply tens of thousands of cubic metres of E10RON95 monthly as refinery output increases. Agriculture Links: Uzbekistan and Vietnam agreed to expand rice science and innovation cooperation to 2030, including new crop varieties and processing know-how. AI Delivery Push: FPT launched Flezi Foundry™, an AI-augmented delivery platform for software and IT operations, aiming to boost output with human oversight. Regional Trade & Tourism: Singapore doubles down on cruise and MICE infrastructure plans, while Vietnam–Cambodia border economic ties get a fresh push via provincial-level talks.

VinFast Restructuring Shock: VinFast’s plan to sell its two main factories and shift about $7b of debt off its books is drawing governance red flags, with analysts pointing to complex intragroup links and the risk of “asset-light” promises outpacing real turnaround progress. ASEAN Heat Adaptation: ASEAN’s energy body is pushing a passive-cooling roadmap as extreme heat increasingly threatens health, productivity, and power systems—especially for low-income and informal workers. Vietnam Business Watch: Malayan Flour Mills will add a new milling line in Vietnam, lifting capacity to 2,500 tonnes/day, while also funding automation upgrades across Vietnam and Malaysia. Macro Context (Bangladesh): Fitch’s downgrade and ballooning non-performing loans underscore how weak implementation and state-enterprise losses can strain regional growth—an indirect reminder for Vietnam’s own execution discipline.

SOE Restructuring Watch: Vietnam’s push to mobilise idle resources is getting sharper teeth, with top leader To Lam calling for a “comprehensive review” of underused assets to help deliver double-digit growth—less reliance on land, cheap labour and incentives, more on better governance and quality FDI. VinFast Governance: VinFast’s plan to sell its two main factories and shift about US$7bn in debt off its books is raising fresh transparency and ownership concerns inside Vingroup’s complex web. Climate Governance Pressure: Vietnam’s net-zero drive is moving from pledges to execution, but independent verification remains limited as emissions data is often self-reported through state channels—raising questions for investors and civil society. Credit Signal: Fitch’s positive assessment of Vietnam’s economic fundamentals is being used by the Ministry of Finance to reinforce the case for stronger institutions and higher transparency. Regional Connectivity: Vietnam also backed new cross-border infrastructure momentum, including a Vietnam–Lao expressway start aimed at boosting trade links to seaports.

US Trade Action: The U.S. has finalized a review that keeps a steep 90.8% antidumping duty on welded steel pressure pipes imported from Vietnam, tightening pressure on exporters already navigating tariff volatility. Energy & Shipping Risk: Reuters reports Iran is expanding de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz via island checkpoints, vetting and sometimes fees—an escalation that can quickly ripple into fuel and freight costs for Vietnam-bound cargo. Vietnam Business & Compliance: A new Vietnam-focused warning flags that weak accounting documentation is increasingly becoming a legal and tax risk as enforcement tightens. Regional Industry Signals: China and Vietnam released 270 million fish into the Beibu Gulf, while ACEN and Ocean Sun signed up for floating solar expansion across Asia. Market Context: Coffee prices slid on expectations of a bigger Brazil crop, while Vietnam’s robusta exports keep adding supply pressure.

Cross-border fisheries push: China and Vietnam released 270 million fish fry and broodstock into the Beibu Gulf, citing monitoring data that key species catches are up about 10% year-on-year. Renewables finance: CIP and BII launched a US$300m renewables investment platform in India aimed at easing developer financing and execution constraints, with a stated focus on scaling clean power. Vietnam macro watch: Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance is finalising a unified property tax study to curb speculation and align land-use taxation with international standards, while Fitch is conducting its periodic sovereign review. Power pipeline: Nghe An kicked off technical works for the Quynh Lap LNG thermal power plant (about US$2.2bn) with PV Power, NASU and SK Innovation, targeting operation in 2030. Trade enforcement: Shopee Vietnam was fined VND200m for misleading “free shipping” promotion terms. Regional security: Vietnam joined India’s PRAGATI 2026 exercise in Meghalaya with 12 friendly nations, focused on counter-terrorism and interoperability.

Floating Solar Push: EVNGENCO1 has proposed adding 270MW of floating PV across three hydropower reservoirs in Lam Dong (Dai Ninh 96MW, Ham Thuan 100MW, Da Mi 70MW), targeting about VND4.4 trillion in investment and aligning with Power Development Plan VIII’s renewables push. Trade Negotiation Setup: Vietnam will create a government delegation to lead international economic and trade negotiations, headed by the industry and trade minister, to coordinate strategy, signing, and treaty implementation. Cross-Border Payments Upgrade: Oriental Bank in Cambodia launched Visa Direct to Account, enabling faster transfers to major corridors including Vietnam (VND) and the US/UK/China and others. Regional Perception Watch: An ASEAN survey says the Philippines is most visible on South China Sea sovereignty, but is less seen as a broad problem-solver for regional issues. Testing & Standards: SGS opened a Bicycle/eMobility/Transit Packaging lab in Bentonville, expanding accredited safety and performance testing for North American suppliers. Vietnam Industry Signal: Vietnam’s industrial production growth and digital push continue in the background, but today’s standout is the renewables and trade-coordination momentum.

Defence Diplomacy: India’s Rajnath Singh met Vietnam’s Phan Van Giang in Hanoi, reviewing defence ties and pushing deeper cooperation on maritime security, defence industry, training, and regional stability, while jointly inaugurating a language lab and signing an MoU covering AI and quantum tech. EV Infrastructure Race: LG Energy Solution, Honda and Hanoi agreed to pilot public battery swapping for electric motorcycles—about 50 stations and 500 bikes starting Q3—aimed at speeding adoption ahead of Hanoi’s fossil-fuel bike crackdown. Energy Buildout: SK Innovation kicked off Vietnam’s $2.3b Quynh Lap LNG project with PV Power and NASU: a 1.5GW LNG power plant plus terminal, targeting operations by Dec 2030 and linking power supply to AI data-centre ambitions. Local Governance & Land: Vietnam is extending special mechanisms to clear legal bottlenecks for delayed land/investment projects, targeting obstacles tied to inspection, audit and court findings. Food & Trade Signals: Vietnam’s Nutifood secured a US patent as seafood and food expo coverage highlights continued push for export-ready safety and processing.

M&A Momentum: AD Ports Group just signed to buy Germany’s MBS Logistics for AED300m (EV), taking full control of its core freight-forwarding business and plugging Noatum Logistics deeper into Central Europe with a China–Vietnam–US network. IPO Watch: Hanoi jeweller Bao Tin Manh Hai is lining up an IPO in Q4, aiming to scale 24K high-tech manufacturing and complete its end-to-end supply chain. Capital Markets: Hai An Transport & Stevedoring seeks over VND1.88tn via a bond issue to expand its container fleet and strengthen ship-leasing ambitions. Retail Recovery: Ho Chi Minh City retail sales rose about 16% in the first four months, with growth shifting toward suburbs, industrial parks and tech-enabled shopping. Tech & Trade: Vietnam’s Nutifood pushes further into the US after securing a US patent tied to its FDI Formula. Energy & Policy: Vietnam is also pushing more renewables and digital goals across the week, but the latest headlines were dominated by deals and market access.

FDI Pulse: Deputy PM Nguyen Van Thang says Vietnam’s FDI sector now contributes over 20% of GDP and about 70% of export turnover, with 46,500+ valid projects and nearly $357.6bn realised capital—while Vietnam pushes institutional reforms and targets next-wave tech (semiconductors, AI, data, biotech, clean energy, modern logistics). Urban Blueprint: Ho Chi Minh City approved an outline master plan for 2025–2050 with a 100-year vision, aiming for at least 10% annual GRDP growth and a multi-centre, smart, climate-resilient mega-city. Housing Finance: The Ministry of Construction proposes a VND10tn Central Housing Fund for 2026–2030 to accelerate social housing delivery. Green Industry Signals: Vietnam’s textile push is drawing greener, smarter hi-tech FDI as EU rules tighten; and i2Cool’s passive radiative cooling win adds to the cleantech momentum. Market & Compliance: Shopee was fined VND200m for misleading free-shipping promotions. Logistics Watch: Global air cargo volumes and pricing dipped in early May as Mother’s Day demand faded.

Animal Science & Food Industry: Vietnam will host the 21st AAAP animal science congress, aiming to pull together 1,300–1,500 delegates and spotlight “Sustainable Animal Production” across the livestock value chain. Dairy & Beverages Push: A new international exhibition series is set to bring together Vietnam Dairy 2026, the Vietnam Ice Cream Expo, and a Vietnam Milk Tea and Beverage Innovation Expo, with 250 booths and processing-to-quality-control solutions. Seafood Export Momentum: Vietnam’s seafood exports are projected to reach about US$12.3bn in 2026 as demand improves, though shrimp/pangasius lead while tuna faces headwinds from tighter import controls. Cybersecurity & Compliance: SpecterAI and CCLab announced a Vietnam/APAC partnership to deliver cybersecurity certification and post-quantum compliance ahead of upcoming legal deadlines. Governance & Business Climate: PCI 2025 expands Vietnam’s competitiveness lens toward private-sector performance, adding a Business Performance Index to track market outputs, not just governance inputs. Regional Energy Shock: Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep shipping constrained, with a Vietnam-bound supertanker resuming after a US halt—another reminder of how global oil routes can quickly hit local costs.

Middle East Shock to Vietnam-linked shipping: A Vietnam-bound supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude has resumed its voyage after a US halt in the Gulf of Oman, underscoring how the Strait of Hormuz crisis is still rerouting energy flows and raising supply-risk for Vietnam’s refining chain. Trade & market access: Vietnam launched the HalalViet Promotion and Experience Centre in Hanoi to help firms meet certification and traceability requirements, with an e-commerce push planned to open global Halal channels. Regional connectivity push: Vietnam and Cambodia held talks to speed cross-border logistics, e-commerce and digital payments, with expressway links to border gates a key focus. Policy backdrop: The World Bank reiterated Vietnam’s resilience, projecting 6.8% growth in 2026 as reforms deepen. Business cost pressure: Jollibee rolled out a cost-containment plan to protect 2026 targets amid higher commodity and supply-chain costs.

Maritime Finance Push: Ho Chi Minh City is pitching the Vietnam International Financial Centre (VIFC) as the engine to turn ports and logistics into a regional capital-flow hub, with the Can Gio transhipment port (planned 570 hectares, ~17m TEU/year) positioned as the physical backbone and VIFC as the financial infrastructure for risk management and capital allocation. Anti-Counterfeit Crackdown: A May 16 HCMC training flagged how counterfeiters exploit e-commerce and social platforms, using legally registered firms and decentralized production chains to dodge inspection. Fish Exports Breakthrough: Pakistan’s fish and fisheries exports topped $500m for the first time, helped by market access gains including first-time approvals to export to Russia. Digital Connectivity Race: China Telecom’s 6,200km Asia Link Cable landed in Hong Kong, boosting the HK–Singapore digital backbone for AI and cross-border data flows. Vietnam Food & Trade: Malaysia tightened seafood import controls on several shrimp species and seabass from Thailand pending responses on safety questions. Energy Pressure in Asia: Jet fuel stress from Hormuz disruption is easing somewhat as airlines cut schedules faster than supply falls.

VinFast Debt Reset: VinFast says it will sell two Vietnamese factories to cut about VND 182 trillion in debt and speed profitability, with manufacturing shifted into a standalone model that can also build for other automakers. North-South High-Speed Rail: Vietnam targets a June selection of the feasibility/FEED consultant for the US$67.34bn line, aiming to keep the schedule on track. Trade & Market Signals: Exports hit a 5-month high growth rate in April (13.48%), while Vietnam’s VN-Index edged down as energy stocks helped cushion the pullback. Agriculture Exports: Fresh pomelos and lemons gain official export access to China under new phytosanitary protocols. Governance for Private Sector: VCCI launches Vietnam’s first Business Performance Index alongside the revamped PCI 2025. Regional Connectivity: Vietnam and Cambodia push expressways and formal border trade to target US$20bn by 2030. HCMC Food Safety: Ho Chi Minh City tightens 2026 inspections across the supply chain, from wholesale markets to school kitchens. Tech & Industry Push: Korean robotics and AI firms line up interest in Vietnam at VINAMAC EXPO 2026.

US trade court tug-of-war: A US appeals court temporarily preserves the White House’s Section 122 tariffs while it reviews a prior ruling that said the tariffs were unlawful—so collections keep going for now. EV reset: Honda posted its first annual loss in decades, taking $9B in EV restructuring charges and scrapping long-term electric targets, including a major Canada EV/battery plan. Vietnam digital push: Vietnam is moving toward a $300B digital tech push by 2030, with policy momentum toward fully digital citizen–government interactions by 2035. Connectivity upgrade: China Telecom’s Asia Link Cable has landed in Hong Kong, boosting high-capacity links across Vietnam and the region. Real estate pressure: Vietnam’s property sector is under pressure to meet international operating standards as global investors demand cleaner, more transparent practices. Energy backdrop: Forecasts point to fewer East Sea storms in 2026, but extreme events and flooding risk remain.

Energy Demand Spike: Vietnam hit a year-high electricity use of 1.1 billion kWh as a new heat wave looms, pushing EVN to seek permission to raise retail power prices after losses reached 5.6 trillion dong. Business Climate Metrics: VCCI rolled out PCI 2.0 and a new Business Performance Index, aiming to better track private-sector innovation and performance as Vietnam pushes deeper administrative reform. Digital Government Push: Vietnam approved “Project 06” to build population data apps, digital ID and authentication, targeting fully digital public services by 2035. Trade & Agriculture: Vietnam began formal pomelo and lime exports to China under new phytosanitary protocols. FDI Watch: Lite-On plans an extra $149m in Vietnam to expand semiconductor/electronics output. Regional Ties: HCMC and Vientiane signed a 2026–2030 cooperation MoU across economic, education and security areas. Public Safety: Police dismantled two cross-border drug rings, seizing 23kg+ of narcotics and precursors. Tech & Industry: Vietnam’s gaming sector is positioning for global expansion, with growth targets tied to the country’s broader digital push.